Air Frame

☆ Increases In World Oil Supplies Is Potential Bad News For Commercial Aircraft Manufacturers’ Business Models

News Analysis: Commercial Aircraft Manufacturers Want Airlines to Think the Price of Aviation Fuel can only go UP. By touting the Alleged Weight Savings in their new Composite Carbon/Carbon Construction, they seek Customers. Often, Incorrect Empty Weight Estimates being given Airlines, make  Fuel Saving Percentages look robust. If the Airlines believe the Aviation Fuel Price Increase Rhetoric, widely dispensed by Air Frame Marketing Departments, then Aircraft Purchases are assured (they think). Looming against this Price Increase Allusion is the Oil Supply Increase Reality happening World-Wide.

The Oil Industry has a “Newer Process” of Shale Oil Retrieval that has been largely developed to its most efficient level in America.  The abundant American resources of Shale Oil In North Dakota, Texas, and elsewhere bode well for large increases in supplies. If one considers the enormous Orinoco Sands Deposit in Venezuela (Estimated: 500 Billion to One Trillion Barrels of Oil), anticipated oil prices would surely plummet steeply.

With increases in Supply come Decreases in Prices (all else being equal). The Arab Gulf States need a $90.00 a Barrel of Oil Price to maintain their economies. It is expected that they will decrease their production to offset their Shale Oil ‘Competitor’. Unfortunately, additional Oil Supplies are being produced in newer Off-Shore Fields such as in Brazilian Waters and will be produced in the future in the Arctic Ocean and perhaps Eastern Mediterranean Sea, et al. This additional production should have the $90.00 a Barrel reduced to perhaps $70.00 to $75.00 a Barrel pricing. Even at this level, Oil is making drilling profitable for many Off-Shore Operations and even more so for Oil Activities on land.

Aviation Fuel Pricing would plummet (many Petroleum Engineers think $1.00 to $1.70 per gallon) as a result of the probable World-Wide Oil Supply Increases. Additionally, Aviation Bio-Fuels will help contribute to price reductions for the Airlines. The Conundrum faced by Air Frames, is: “What Concerns can they Create to make Airlines think they ‘Have To Have’ new Aircraft?”

Airlines will find a diminution in Aviation Fuel prices (due to the aforementioned Oil Supply Increases coming On-Line) which will make a Mockery of the Hundred + Millions of Dollars now charged per Plane by the Air Frames; this  so the Airlines can “Save Pennies Per Gallon of Fuel” with their Composite Aircraft?

Reality.

Reference: http://gulfnews.com/business/oil-gas/us-oil-exports-likely-to-drag-down-prices-1.1286567

Qatar Airlines: Pleased With Airbus, Far Less So With Another

News Analysis: Airlines need their New Aircraft on or before their Contracted Delivery Dates (as it appears Qatar will be joyously receiving with its Airbus A350’s). They are tiring of hearing about Aircraft Delays from other Air Frames. It seems that some Air Frames “Promise the Moon” (especially in terms of estimated low fuel burn and projected on-time reliability).

The Benefits of the Technologies the Air Frames now promote, such as All Composite Construction, say next to NOTHING about Structural De-lamination due to Stress (or Cosmic and Solar Radiation at Cruise Elevations), Detonation like a ‘Shattered Egg’ (when the fuselage hits the airport runway as when landing-gear failure arises), nor Flammability of the Carbon/Carbon Composite Construction (from even little Lithium-Ion Batteries).

As the Administrations of Airlines commence to “Wise-Up” to the Games played by SOME Airframes, they will cease being “Freiers” who are easily influenced by the Chicanery offered by Air Frame Marketeers.

Any time a new Aircraft is YEARS LATE in its Delivery to Customers means that the Scope of Work Was Not Properly Estimated and Assets (Human and Financial) were not properly allocated (as also might be not properly estimated is the Aircraft’s Performance, Fuel Burn, and Dispatch Reliability)

Reality.

Reference: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/2014/02/12/Qatar-Airways-expects-to-receive-first-A350s-early.html