News Analysis: “Shale Oil Reserves In America: Are The Estimates Accurate?” is a question Petroleum Engineers ask presently. The ‘Jan Arp Formula” has its equations taken from “Liquid” Oil Production and applied (with minor Adjustments?) to Oil Shale Rock Production. To analogize: “Is a Grapefruit a Tangerine?” Both are Citrus Fruit; both have peels; both have seeds; both have pulp. However, these Fruit are different in Sizes, Sugar Contents, and pH (Acid) Levels.
Any Oil Field in the World needs greater numbers of holes drilled in it for attainment of more accurate estimated Reserves therein.
In estimating Oil Shale Rock Reserves, one has more problematic elements to contend with. Perhaps the biggest difficulty is to fracture the Oil Shale Rock ‘Most Properly’ so Oil And Gas can escape the strata and be recovered maximally. A difficulty is having to drill deeper and then be “Lucky Enough” to Horizontally Drill to the Mid-Point (Up-Down, Left Right) in the Shale Deposit (possibly a great distance from the drilling rig). This process can then be continued with other drilling to maximize the extraction. Another perhaps lesser element is the proper Chemicals/Pressures utilized to fracture the Shale; there will be some variations in both Chemical Composition and as well Compaction of Shale in the same ‘large’ deposit over the distance.
As with ANY Formulation, the “Garbage In-Garbage Out” Principle applies; even to adaptations of Jan Arp’s Equation.
It does not take too much imagination to envision Vested Interest Groups wanting to “Hype” the Price of Petroleum Company Related Stock(s) by using “Creative Equations” for large ‘Estimated Reserves’ to impress the “Freiers” who would buy into it.
Unfortunately today, there are not too many Oil Company leaders with the Integrity the likes of George Franklin Getty; amongst some of the current lot “Anything For A Buck (AFAB)” ‘Contamination permeates the Strata’.
“Caveat Emptor”; especially in the Petroleum Industry.
Reality.